base 4; +2 extremely high IV; +1 pinning gamma regime; -2 low liquidity; -2 wide spreads
Term structure: Humped at 46 DTE (May 15th, 99%). Elevated above 85% out to ~8 months.
Spot vs MP: Below max pain by 10.3% (spot $4.48 vs MP $5.00)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$3.7M — mean-reverting)
Gamma flip: ~$4.00 — Approx $4.00. Positive GEX below suggests dealers will hedge to dampen moves, supporting a pin.
OI concentrations: Major Put Wall: $4.00 (38,977 OI). Major Call Walls: $7.00 (33,425 OI), $10.00 (25,878 OI).
#1put spread
Sell $4.00 / Buy $3.50 Put Spread, 2026-05-01 (32 DTE)
Targets the massive $4.00 put wall (38,977 OI) for support in a pinning regime. 32 DTE captures high IV (86.3%) while avoiding earnings (May 7th). Defined risk with high credit-to-width ratio.
Mgmt: Assumed bid-ask ~$0.10 on spread. Close at 50% profit. Exit entire position if price closes below $3.90.
#2cash secured put
Sell $4.00 Put, 2026-05-01 (32 DTE)
Higher-premium version of Opportunity #1, directly selling the high-IV put at the major OI support. Positive GEX and pinning regime increase confidence in the $4.00 hold. Substantial credit (12.5-17.5% of strike) for 32 DTE.
Mgmt: Assumed bid-ask ~$0.20. Close at 65% profit. Exit if price closes below $3.90. Be prepared to take assignment at $4.00 if tested.
#3call credit spread
Sell $5.00 / Buy $5.50 Call Spread, 2026-04-17 (18 DTE)
Spot is below near-term max pain ($5.00 for 4/17). The $5.00 strike shows heavy net call selling ($158K premium flow), indicating resistance. Positive GEX supports a move towards, but not through, this level. Uses a weekly to capitalize on theta.
Mgmt: Assumed bid-ask ~$0.07. Close at 50% profit. Exit if price closes above $4.90 (above the 4/10 expected move high of $5.01).
#4iron condor
Sell $4.00/$3.50P x $5.00/$5.50C, 2026-05-01 (32 DTE)
Illustrative only, due to liquidity. Combines the put spread (Rank 1) and call spread (Rank 3) logic, betting on a pin between the $4.00 support and $5.00 resistance. High IV provides premium for a wide range.
Mgmt: Assumed wide bid-ask. Close at 50% profit. Exit either wing if its short strike is breached. Likely challenging to execute.
!Earnings expected ~2026-05-07. Close or roll all short premium positions before this date. Never hold naked shorts through earnings.
!Critical Gamma Flip ~$4.00. A break below this level could shift GEX negative, leading to accelerated selling pressure.
!Low Liquidity / Extremely Wide Spreads. With only 29 active strikes, assume wide bid-ask spreads on all strategies. Multi-leg fills (e.g., iron condors) are illustrative.
!Extreme OI in Far OTM Calls ($1.50, $7, $10, $20). Suggests speculative positioning which can distort volatility and cause unpredictable gamma events.
!Max Pain Trend is Falling ($5 → $2 over 12 expirations). This long-term drift lower is a headwind for put sellers over multiple cycles.
!Regime Change: Gamma regime flipped from Trending (GEX -$1.8M) to Pinning (GEX +$3.7M). This is a positive delta for credit sellers, but monitor for a flip back.