base 5; +1 GEX/flow weakly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.8% from MP; +1 VIX 15
Term structure: Near-term ATM IV peaks at 64% for 14d, then decays; steep contango 1d to 8d, then flat; rich premiums
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+23.5M)
Gamma flip: ~$92.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 13,046 (22.9% below spot)
OI concentrations: Put OI $92 (13k, 22.9% below spot); call walls $130-$150; max pain $115, $118, $108
#1Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $105.00/$100.00 put spread
Sell $105/$100 put spread to collect elevated premium while limiting downside to $92 support.
Mgmt: Set stop-loss if NOW breaks below $100; close at 50% of max gain.
#2Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $105.00/$100.00 put wing and $145.00/$165.00 call wing
Sell $105/$100 put and $145/$165 call wings for net credit.
Mgmt: Manage if spot approaches either short strike; target 50% profit.
!Put OI wall at $92 below spot, potential magnet if decline
!Near-term expirations high put IV skew, watch volatility
!Dealer net premium positive, hedging demand for calls