thetaOwl

NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $89.30EOD only
Max Pain
$89.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.29
1.4% from close
Price Gap
-0.30
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
23
Low premium
P/C OI
0.79
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
NFLX Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 21, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7.5 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Sell put spreads near max pain and OI support
Invalidation: Close below $73 gamma flip
Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.1% from MP

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 50.3% — elevated, no VIX provided for direct comparison
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Humped at 2026-04-17 (56.4%), kink at 2026-05-22 (43.8%)

💰High IV (50.3%) favors premium sellers
📈Term structure hump at 11 DTE offers rich short-dated premium

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above by 4.1% (spot $98.93 vs max pain $95)

GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$207.3M)

Gamma flip: ~$73.00Below $73, dealers amplify moves — far from spot

OI concentrations: Call wall $105-$125 (91K+ OI), put floor $73 (48K OI)

Verdict: Favorable — strong positive GEX (+$207.3M) and max pain clustering near spot supports pinning, protecting credit positions

Premium Opportunities

#1
put spread
Sell $95/$90 put spread 2026-04-24 (18 DTE)
Max pain at $94 for this expiry; put OI cluster at $95 (20,883 OI) provides support; high IV (49.1%) offers rich credit; positive GEX pinning regime
Credit: $1.82-$1.85
Max loss: $3.15
BE: $93.15
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit; exit if spot closes below $90 (next OI support); roll if tested but not breached
#2
iron condor
Sell $95/$90P x $105/$110C 2026-04-24 (18 DTE)
Fits within expected move range ($90.38-$107.48); call OI wall at $105 (20,505 OI) and put OI at $95 provide barriers; high IV and pinning regime favor range-bound play
Credit: $2.14-$2.18
Max loss: $2.82
BE: 92.86/107.14
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit; manage wings independently — close tested side at 21 DTE if breached; exit entire position if spot breaches $90 or $110
#3
covered call
Sell $105 covered call 2026-04-24 (18 DTE) against long stock
Call OI wall at $105 (20,505 OI) acts as resistance; high IV (49.1%) provides attractive premium; pinning regime reduces chance of assignment
Credit: $1.56-$1.59
Max loss: unlimited (stock downside)
BE: stock purchase price minus credit
Mgmt: Roll up and out if spot approaches $105 before expiry; close at 80% profit if early decay allows
#4
cash-secured put
Sell $95 put 2026-04-24 (18 DTE)
Max pain at $94; put OI cluster at $95 (20,883 OI) provides strong support; high IV yields solid premium; willing to own stock at effective $92.86
Credit: $2.14-$2.18
Max loss: $92.82
BE: $92.86
Mgmt: Roll down and out if spot breaches $95; close at 70% profit; avoid assignment if spot below breakeven at expiry
#5
credit spread
Sell $100/$105 call spread 2026-04-10 (4 DTE)
Weekly expiry in high-IV environment (36.3% ATM); spot below $100 call OI cluster (13,346 OI); positive GEX concentration at $100 (+$29.7M) may pin near strike; quick theta decay
Credit: $0.45-$0.47
Max loss: $4.55
BE: $100.45
Mgmt: Close at 80% profit due to short expiry; exit if spot closes above $101; do not hold through earnings

Risk Alerts

!Earnings on 2026-04-16 — close all short premium positions before announcement; never sell naked through earnings
!High IV (50.3%) — monitor for IV crush post-earnings if selling near-dated options
!Gamma flip at $73 — though far from spot, breach would trigger accelerated selling from dealers
!Unusual put volume at $99 and $100 for 2026-04-10 — may indicate institutional hedging; watch for pinning near these strikes
!Call OI wall at $105-$125 — strong resistance zone; credit call spreads above $110 carry higher risk of pinning against wall
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.