NFLX Theta Gang Report
Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026
Theta Verdict
Confidence:7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.1% from MP
IV Environment
IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 50.3% — elevated, no VIX provided for direct comparison
Favorable?
Yes
Term structure: Humped at 2026-04-17 (56.4%), kink at 2026-05-22 (43.8%)
High IV (50.3%) favors premium sellers
Term structure hump at 11 DTE offers rich short-dated premium
Pin Risk Assessment
Spot vs MP: Above by 4.1% (spot $98.93 vs max pain $95)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$207.3M)
Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Below $73, dealers amplify moves — far from spot
OI concentrations: Call wall $105-$125 (91K+ OI), put floor $73 (48K OI)
Verdict: Favorable — strong positive GEX (+$207.3M) and max pain clustering near spot supports pinning, protecting credit positions
Premium Opportunities
#1
put spread
Sell $95/$90 put spread 2026-04-24 (18 DTE)
Max pain at $94 for this expiry; put OI cluster at $95 (20,883 OI) provides support; high IV (49.1%) offers rich credit; positive GEX pinning regime
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit; exit if spot closes below $90 (next OI support); roll if tested but not breached
#2
iron condor
Sell $95/$90P x $105/$110C 2026-04-24 (18 DTE)
Fits within expected move range ($90.38-$107.48); call OI wall at $105 (20,505 OI) and put OI at $95 provide barriers; high IV and pinning regime favor range-bound play
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit; manage wings independently — close tested side at 21 DTE if breached; exit entire position if spot breaches $90 or $110
#3
covered call
Sell $105 covered call 2026-04-24 (18 DTE) against long stock
Call OI wall at $105 (20,505 OI) acts as resistance; high IV (49.1%) provides attractive premium; pinning regime reduces chance of assignment
Mgmt: Roll up and out if spot approaches $105 before expiry; close at 80% profit if early decay allows
#4
cash-secured put
Sell $95 put 2026-04-24 (18 DTE)
Max pain at $94; put OI cluster at $95 (20,883 OI) provides strong support; high IV yields solid premium; willing to own stock at effective $92.86
Mgmt: Roll down and out if spot breaches $95; close at 70% profit; avoid assignment if spot below breakeven at expiry
#5
credit spread
Sell $100/$105 call spread 2026-04-10 (4 DTE)
Weekly expiry in high-IV environment (36.3% ATM); spot below $100 call OI cluster (13,346 OI); positive GEX concentration at $100 (+$29.7M) may pin near strike; quick theta decay
Mgmt: Close at 80% profit due to short expiry; exit if spot closes above $101; do not hold through earnings
Risk Alerts
Earnings on 2026-04-16 — close all short premium positions before announcement; never sell naked through earnings
High IV (50.3%) — monitor for IV crush post-earnings if selling near-dated options
Gamma flip at $73 — though far from spot, breach would trigger accelerated selling from dealers
Unusual put volume at $99 and $100 for 2026-04-10 — may indicate institutional hedging; watch for pinning near these strikes
Call OI wall at $105-$125 — strong resistance zone; credit call spreads above $110 carry higher risk of pinning against wall
Read the Theta Gang analysis for NFLX for 2026-04-06. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.