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MDB

MongoDB, Inc.Close $329.14EOD only

Max Pain

$320.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$15.88

4.8% from close

Price Gap

-9.14

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.95

Balanced positioning

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MDB options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

MDB Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral with a slight upward drift toward the $250 max pain cluster, but trapped within a wide, high-volatility range. Confidence: 5/10. The pinning gamma and positive GEX support a contained move higher, but extreme IV, negative net premium, and mixed flow signal high uncertainty and potential for violent swings.

Confidence:

5 / 10

base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 net premium negative; -1 IV >70% adds noise; -1 flow mixed; +1 spot below MP creates drift.

Supports: GEX +$1.3M (pinning), spot below MP ($244.77 vs $250), P/C vol 0.69 (call-heavy volume).
Conflicts: Net premium -$22.8M (bearish), IV 70.8% (extremely rich), P/C OI 0.81 (put-heavy positioning).

📌Strong pinning regime with spot below max pain cluster.

⚠️IV >70% and negative net premium signal high fear/hedging.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 70.8% — extremely high, creating rich premium for sellers but with elevated tail risk.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$1.3M — pinning regime, dealers are net long gamma and will hedge to suppress volatility near spot.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed — P/C volume 0.69 shows call-buying activity, but net premium -$22.8M and P/C OI 0.81 reveal underlying put-heavy positioning.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $244.77 is below the immediate max pain cluster ($250, $247.5) — creates a mild upward gravitational pull.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain pins consistently around $250 across multiple weekly expirations (3/27, 4/2, 4/24), and GEX sign remains positive. The regime is not tied to a single event expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$236.46$253.08

Driven by pinning and spot below MP. Break below $236.46 EM low invalidates.

Next 1 week

$226.62$262.92

Pinning persists but high IV widens the expected range. Upside capped by $255 call OI wall.

Next 2 weeks

$220.50$269.05

Flow mixed; direction depends on whether call volume or put OI dominates. Watch $270 call OI wall.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $250 (2026-03-27); $248 (2026-04-02); $255 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $236.46/$253.08; 1w $226.62/$262.92

Support: $200.00 · $220.00 · $140.00

Resistance: $290.00 · $255.00 · $255.00

Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,092

Structural: Call OI walls at $255, $270, and $290-$310 cap rallies. Distant put floors at $200 and $140 are likely long-term hedges, not near-term support.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.3M

DEX: +3.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$200 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,092)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip far below at ~$200 indicates negligible near-term gamma sensitivity. Dealers are long gamma, suppressing volatility around current spot.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 70.8% — extremely rich. Implies high fear/uncertainty; selling premium has edge if you can manage tail risk.

Term structure: Humped — peaks around 38-45 DTE (May expirations ~61%), then stays elevated. No sharp event kinks visible.

Skew: Steep term structure from April (~55%) to May (~61%) offers ~6 vol-pt differential for calendar spreads.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$22.8M bearish; P/C vol 0.69 (call-heavy volume), P/C OI 0.81 (put-heavy positioning).

Directional prints: $255C 4/10 & 4/17 saw high volume vs OI (57 & 56 vol) — could be opening call buys or closing puts. $250P saw 20 vol vs 1.1k OI — likely closing long puts. The $190C 1/27 saw huge net premium inflow (+$4.2M) — likely a bullish LEAPS diagonal or hedge adjustment.

Unusual: $500C 5/15 vol 1,545 vs OI 443 — massive OTM call sweep, either a speculative lottery ticket or part of a complex hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!Extreme IV (70.8%) can lead to violent gamma swings on any news.

!Negative net premium suggests institutional hedging; a market-wide sell-off could accelerate downside.

!Gamma flip is far away (~$200), meaning little dealer support on a sharp drop.

!Earnings estimated 6/4/2026 — vol may start pricing this in over next month.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at $244.77.	High IV environment offers poor risk/reward for outright long delta.
Short stock	Weak	Sell shares at $244.77.	Contra-trend to pinning and positive GEX; high borrow cost likely.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own shares, sell $255C 4/17 (~$5.00 est).	Shares called away above $255; upside capped.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $235/$230 put spread 4/17.	Break below $236.46 2d EM low.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy $250C 4/17.	Buying expensive vol in a pinning regime; theta decay severe.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy $240/$235 put spread 4/17.	Pinning and positive GEX oppose downside; only for hedging.
Iron condor	Moderate	$235/$230P x $255/$260C 4/17.	High IV >70% and GEX positive; wings may be tested but premium rich.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell $250C 5/8 (IV 61.1%), buy $250C 4/17 (IV 56.5%) — reverse calendar.	Pin at $250 breaks; requires spot stability.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $190C 1/27, sell $255C 4/17 against it.	Long-dated IV also high (67%); capital intensive.

Top Plays

Covered Call (Against Shares)

Own shares, sell $255 Call exp 4/17.

Capitalizes on high IV for premium collection while aligning with the pinning regime's upward drift toward max pain. The $255 strike is at a key OI wall and just above the 1-week EM high.

Credit: $4.50-$5.50

Max loss: Unlimited below breakeven

BE: $239.77

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of credit received. Consider rolling up/out if spot approaches $255. Exit if spot closes below $236.

Shareholders looking to generate income and reduce cost basis in a range-bound, high-vol environment.

Put Spread (Premium Sale)

Sell $235 / Buy $230 Put Spread exp 4/17.

Defined-risk way to sell rich volatility, positioned below the 2-day EM low ($236.46) for a buffer. Benefits from the pinning regime's suppression of downside moves and the upward drift.

Credit: $1.40-$1.70

Max loss: $3.60

BE: $233.60

Mgmt: Close at 60-80% max profit. Exit if spot closes below $236.46 (2d EM low).

Traders with a neutral-to-bullish bias seeking defined risk and high premium capture.

Reverse Call Calendar

Sell $250 Call 5/8, Buy $250 Call 4/17.

Exploits the ~4.6 vol-point differential in term structure (61.1% vs 56.5%) by selling the higher-IV May expiry. Profits if spot pins near $250 through April expiry, benefiting from accelerated decay of the short leg.

Debit: $-1.20-$-0.80

Max loss: Debit paid

BE: Varies with vol diff and pin

Mgmt: Close for profit if short leg decays faster. Exit if spot moves decisively away from $250 (>$260 or <$240).

Advanced traders comfortable with pinning thesis, seeking a theta/vol decay play with positive vega.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rises to $248-249 (approaching MP) and holds for 1 hour → Enter reverse calendar: Sell $250C 5/8, Buy $250C 4/17.

IFSpot drops to $237 (testing 2d EM low) and IV >75% → Sell $235/$230 put spread 4/17.

Exit Triggers

EXITIV drops below 60% (vol crush) on any rally → Take profit on all short premium positions (covered calls, put spreads).

EXITSpot closes above $260 (breaking through OI wall) → Exit reverse calendar and put spreads; consider long calls.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis is a high-volatility pin near $250. Favor selling premium (covered calls, put spreads) to harvest extreme IV, with calendars for advanced pin plays. Invalidation is a close below $236.46. Top plays: covered calls for shareholders, put spreads for defined-risk bulls, and a reverse calendar for pinning specialists.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.