Earnings Verdict
Earnings expected around 5/6 (in ~36 days). IV is extremely elevated (98%), creating a prime setup for a short premium or IV crush play. The key risk is IONQ's history of large directional moves, which can overwhelm premium collected.
base 5; +1 clear earnings date inference; +1 high IV and defined term structure kink; +0.5 strong historical data; -0.5 high VIX environment may dampen crush
Most important: IV term structure shows a massive kink at the 5/8 expiration (38d), confirming the inferred earnings date and indicating where the crush will be most severe.
⚠️Earnings date is inferred from IV kink at 5/08 (38d) and provided EPS estimate. Confirm via company IR.
📈Historical beat rate is 100% with a strong upward bias (3/4 up moves). This favors long delta or call-sided strategies.
💥IV of 98% is extreme. Even a successful crush play requires a significant move to be profitable if long premium.
Regime Classification
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$2.3M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Bearish (net prem $-30.2M, P/C 1.74)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 7.0% (spot $28.83 vs MP $31)
Gamma flip: ~$20.00 — Below $20, dealers amplify moves. Spot is well above, providing some cushion.
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-05-06 (36 days)inferred
Expected moves:
- 5/08 (38d): ±$6.53 (22.6%)
- 5/15 (45d): ±$7.29 (25.3%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Extreme kink at 5/08 (38d) to 88.7% vs 84.1% (5/01) and 87.7% (5/15). Sharp drop-off after 5/15.
Crush estimate: ~20-30 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~60-70% range.
Skew: Flow is bearish (P/C 1.74), but OI is balanced (P/C 0.92). Puts show heavy premium flow at $30.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: Actual 17.8% vs EM 13.9% — consistently exceeds expected move.
Directional bias: 3/4 gap up post-earnings
Key Levels
1$20 gamma flip / put OI wall
2$30 put OI wall (18.5k)
3$35 call OI wall (12.6k)
4EM (5/08): $22.30 - $35.36
Flow Highlights
Massive $30P 6/18 block (37k vol vs 2.2k OI, 16.8x)
Institutional hedge or bearish bet for mid-year, well beyond earnings.
Heavy net premium outflow at $30P (-$29.2M), dominated by put selling.
Likely closing of existing bearish positions or writing of puts for income, suggesting some near-term support.
Unusual $32.50C 4/02 volume (1.2k vol, 5.8x OI, IV 108%)
Speculative short-dated upside bet ahead of potential pre-earnings run.
Strategies
Short Strangle (Post-Earnings IV Crush)
Sell $22.5 PUT x $35.5 CALL 5/08
Trigger: Enter 1-5 days before earnings, targeting IV >85%
Capitalizes on extreme IV and historical tendency for IV to collapse post-event. Strikes placed just outside the expected move to provide a buffer.
Outperforms: Stock stays within wide $22.5-$35.5 range and IV crushes >20 pts.
Underperforms: Gap exceeds 5/08 EM ($22.30-$35.36) by a wide margin.
Put Calendar Spread (Bearish/Neutral, Gamma Play)
Buy $30 PUT 5/15 / Sell $30 PUT 5/08
Trigger: Enter 2-3 weeks before earnings.
Targets the intense IV crush in the front-month (5/08) while maintaining longer-dated optionality. Benefits from pinning at the high-OI $30 strike.
Outperforms: Stock pins near $30 (massive OI wall) and short-term IV crushes more than longer-term IV.
Underperforms: Stock gaps far from $30 or IV curve flattens/inverts.
Long Put Diagonal (Cautious Bearish Hedge)
Buy $30 PUT 6/18 / Sell $27.5 PUT 5/08
Trigger: Enter with stock near current levels, aiming for a credit.
Generates income via the elevated IV of the short 5/08 put while establishing a longer-dated, lower-cost bearish position via the 6/18 put. Aligns with bearish flow sentiment.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $27.5 through May expiry, allowing full premium capture.
Underperforms: Stock collapses below $27.5, requiring management of the long $30 put.
Risk Assessment
!Gap risk: HIGH. Historical moves average 17.8%, exceeding the current 5/08 EM of 22.6%. A repeat could challenge even wide strangles.
!IV crush impact: HIGH. Estimated 20-30 point crush is the primary profit driver for short premium strategies.
!Liquidity: Moderate. OI/Volume sufficient for retail sizing, but wide spreads may impact fills on complex multi-leg orders.
!Sizing: Use reduced size due to high volatility and binary earnings outcome. Define risk upfront.
What to Watch
?IV trajectory into May — will it rise further or start to deflate early?
?Spot price action relative to the $30 put OI wall and $31 max pain for 4/02.
?Any unusual activity in the 5/08 or 5/15 expirations as earnings approaches.