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IONQ

IonQ, Inc.Close $52.47EOD only

Max Pain

$49.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.39

6.5% from close

Price Gap

-3.47

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.09

Balanced positioning

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects IONQ options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

IONQ Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with a strong pinning force near $30-$31, but underlying flow and positioning suggest weakness. Confidence: 4/10. The market is trapped between a positive GEX pin and heavy bearish premium flow, with spot significantly below near-term max pain.

Confidence:

4 / 10

base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 GEX/flow contradict; -1 spot 7.0% from MP

Supports: GEX +$2.3M (pinning), DEX +17.7M shares (dealer long delta), structural call OI wall at $35-$40.
Conflicts: Net premium -$30.2M (bearish), P/C Volume Ratio 1.74 (put-heavy), spot well below $31 MP.

⚖️Tug-of-war: GEX pin vs. bearish flow

📉Massive $30 put OI (18.5K) anchors downside

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 98% is extremely high, offering rich premium for sellers but with massive tail risk.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$2.3M indicates pinning pressure, concentrated around the massive $30 put OI wall.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Net premium -$30.2M and P/C vol 1.74 show clear institutional put buying/bearish hedging.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot at $28.83 is 7% below the $31 3/27 max pain, creating a strong upward gravitational pull for this week.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends upward from $31 to $35+ across expirations, GEX sign is stable positive, and bearish flow is consistent. The pin may resolve this week, but the structural upward drift in MP suggests a multi-week consolidation/grind higher is favored.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$27.32$30.34

Pin to max pain dominates; a break below $27.32 (2d EM low) invalidates.

Next 1 week

$25.74$31.91

Expect a grind toward $31-$32, capped by $35 call wall. Downside limited by $25.74 (1w EM low).

Next 2 weeks

$24.76$32.90

Max pain rises to $35 by April expiries; flow must reverse for sustained move above $35.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $31 (2026-03-27); $30 (2026-04-02); $30 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $27.32/$30.34; 1w $25.74/$31.91

Support: $20.00 · $2.50 · $17.50

Resistance: $40.00 · $35.00

Gamma flip: ~$20.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 12,034

Structural: Call OI wall $35-$40 is a major ceiling. Put 'floor' is artificial and far OTM ($2-$20), representing legacy positions, not meaningful support. Real support is at the $20 gamma flip and the $30 put OI anchor.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+2.3M

DEX: +17.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$20 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 12,034)

NTM gamma: Dealers are net long gamma (+GEX) and long delta (+DEX). A move above $30 reduces their long delta hedge (selling pressure), a move below $28.83 increases it (buying pressure), reinforcing the pin.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 98% is astronomically high vs. any broad market VIX, indicating extreme stock-specific risk/vol demand. Selling premium has immense edge if direction is contained.

Term structure: Steeply upward sloping near-term (63% → 88% in 38 days), then flat. Highest IV is at the 5/8 expiry (88.7%).

Skew: The ~25 vol-point differential between weekly (63%) and May (88%) expiries creates a strong case for calendar spreads (sell May, buy weekly).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$30.2M bearish; P/C vol 1.74 (put-heavy), P/C OI 0.92 (balanced).

Directional prints: 1) $30 Put 6/18: Vol 37,284 vs OI 2,223 — massive new bearish position or hedge. Likely bought puts for long-dated protection. 2) $35 Call 5/15: Vol 10,258 vs OI 3,356 — could be bullish call buying or call selling against shares. Given net bearish flow, selling calls is more consistent. 3) $32.50 Call 4/2: Vol 1,174 at 107.8% IV — likely short-dated lottery ticket buying.

Unusual: The $30 strike shows extreme dichotomy: $29.2M net PUT premium flow vs. $316K CALL flow. This is the epicenter of market conflict.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$20 is far away; the real near-term risk is a break below the $27.50-$28.00 support zone, triggering the massive $30 put hedge.

!IV > 90% presents severe mark-to-market risk for long premium positions and potential for violent vol crush on stability.

!Upcoming earnings est. 5/6 (unconfirmed) is a known catalyst that could resolve the high vol regime.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at ~$28.83 (market price).	Trapped below max pain with bearish flow; high IV makes options hedging expensive.
Short stock	Weak	Sell shares at ~$28.83 (market price).	Positive GEX/DEX pin and upward MP drift create strong headwinds; better expressed via puts.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Buy stock, sell 4/17 $35 Call (~$1.00 est.).	Shares stuck below $35; opportunity cost if breakout occurs.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/10 $27 Put (~$1.50 est.) or $27/$25 Put Spread.	Break below $27.32 2d EM low.
Long calls	Weak	Buy 4/17 $30 Call (~$2.50 est.).	Extremely high IV and pinning make long premium difficult; needs a sharp move above $31.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 4/10 $28 Put, sell $25 Put (~$1.20 debit est.).	Contradicts GEX pin and MP drift; only works on a swift breakdown.
Iron condor	Moderate	$26/$24P x $32/$34C 4/17 (outside 1w EM bounds).	High IV (>80%) and GEX positive, but spot is not centered; wings risk pin drift.
Calendar/diagonal	Strong	Sell 5/8 $30 Put (IV 88.7%), Buy 4/10 $30 Put (IV 77.3%) for a ~$1.00 net credit.	Spot moves far from $30, hurting short leg more than long.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 1/15/27 $20 Call (~$12.00 est.), sell 4/17 $35 Call against it.	High cost basis; requires patience and upward drift.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread (Tactical)

Buy 4/10 $28 Put, Sell 4/10 $25 Put.

A defined-risk bet that the bearish flow overpowers the pin this week. Targets a move to the 1w EM low ($25.74). Best entered on a failed rally near $30.

Debit: $1.10-$1.30

Max loss: $1.10

BE: $26.90

Mgmt: Take profit at 80-100% of max profit if $25.74 is hit. Exit if spot reclaims $29.50.

Traders with a bearish bias who want to hedge against or profit from a breakdown below the pin.

Put Calendar Spread (Multi-Week)

Sell 5/8 $30 Put, Buy 4/17 $30 Put.

Capitalizes on the steep IV term structure by selling high vol (88.7%) and buying lower vol (80.6%). Profits if IONQ stays near $30 through April, benefiting from pinning and faster decay of the short leg. The extra time in the short leg improves risk/reward by capturing more premium and giving the pin more time to work.

Credit: $0.90-$1.20

Max loss: $4.00

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Close when short leg IV collapses post-4/17 expiry or if credit reaches 50% of max. Roll short leg if spot moves >$2 from $30.

Neutral/range traders comfortable with pinning thesis, seeking to harvest vol differential.

Covered Call

Buy stock at ~$28.83, Sell 4/17 $35 Call.

Expresses a neutral-to-bullish view aligned with the multi-week MP drift. The high IV provides attractive call premium (~$1.00) for downside cushion. Better than a naked short put because you participate in any upside to $35 and avoid pin risk at $30.

Credit: $0.90-$1.10

Max loss: $27.83

BE: $27.83

Mgmt: Consider rolling the call up/out if spot approaches $35. Exit trade if spot breaks below $27.

Investors willing to own IONQ at this level, seeking income and a defined exit at $35.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies to tag $30.50 then fails, with 5-min RSI >70 → Enter 4/10 $28/$25 bear put spread.

IFSpot holds between $28.50 and $29.50 for 2 consecutive days → Enter 5/8 vs 4/17 $30 put calendar spread.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes above $31.50 (breaking above 3/27 max pain) → Exit all bearish positions (puts, bear spreads).

EXITIV term structure flattens (May IV < 80%) → Exit calendar spread positions.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis is a conflicted, pinned grind higher toward $30-$31, countered by bearish flow. Invalidation is a close below $27.32. The regime favors selling high IV (calendars, covered calls) or defined-risk directional plays (put spreads) that respect the pin. Top Plays: 1) Bear Put Spread for tactical breakdown bets, 2) Put Calendar for multi-week pin/vol harvest, 3) Covered Call for stock owners seeking income with upside cap.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.