thetaOwl

GLD

SPDR Gold SharesClose $416.99EOD only
Max Pain
$418.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.33
1.0% from close
Price Gap
+1.01
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
5
Low premium
P/C OI
0.58
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GLD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
GLD AI Consensus Report
Analysis based on market close April 7, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 7, 2026. A newer ai consensus report is available for May 21, 2026.

View latest report
Conviction
5.5

out of 10

5.5 because dealer gamma and a clear pin cluster provide a reliable short-term focal point, but conviction is capped by persistent negative net premium and mixed institutional flow which could rapidly overwhelm dealer positioning — absence of a clean uni-directional flow and the potential for short-dated vol shocks keep this from being higher.

Where Perspectives Agree

Market exhibits a dealer-supported pin in the $428–$440 zone producing a modest mean-reversion bias into that cluster; consensus favors defined-risk premium selling against the pin rather than naked directional exposure.

Where They Diverge

Flow and premium-skew signals are mixed: institutional selling (net premium negative) and some large sell-side flows point to distribution that would erode dealer pinning if sustained, directly contradicting the directional pin continuation thesis; theta likes selling into the pin while flow warns that continued institutional liquidation could flip the setup downwards.

Top Trade
via theta

Sell 5/22 430/420 put spread for a net credit (defined-risk premium sell)

Key Risk

Sustained break and close below $420 on heavy intraday flow — trigger: large institutional sell prints and widening IV that push spot under $420 — consequence: dealer gamma support collapses and downside accelerates toward the $360 structural put cluster.

How to Use These Reports
This ai consensus reflects the market close on April 7, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.