base 4.0 (provided); +1 pinning GEX (+$1.3M) helps; -1 limited chain depth / net premium negative; -1 spot 8.1% below MP and near gamma flip
Term structure: Very steep short-dated vol (3d ATM 104.9%) that eases slightly into 2-6 week expirations (~88.9%–93.8%) — good carry for selling 30–45 DTE premium
Spot vs MP: Spot $30.77 is below Max Pain pins (nearest MPs $33.50 on 4/10 and $35.00 on 4/17); pre-computed says Spot vs MP: Below
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$1.3M) — dealer positioning is net long gamma which creates a magnetic effect toward OI-rich strikes
Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Gamma flip ~ $30 — below this dealers' hedging can amplify moves; being at/just above flip favors short puts while above the flip increases pinning
OI concentrations: Large put OI at $30.00 (5,476) and put floor concentrated at $25.00 (3,307); call OI walls at $35-$45 (2,974 @ $35, 2,945 @ $50)
#1put spread (CSP defined-risk)
Sell 30 / buy 27.50 put spread 2026-05-22 (~45 DTE) — cash-secured short put spread around $30 support
High IV (ATM ~92-93% at multi-week expirations) + strong put OI at $30 (5,476) and GEX pinning (+$1.3M) make selling downside defined-risk favorable. 45 DTE gives robust theta with less tail than weekly naked puts.
Mgmt: Assume bid/ask slippage of $0.20–$0.50 on entry. Take profits at 50–65% of max credit collected. Roll down and widen if price closes below $30.00 or if single-day move breaches 2d EM $28.42. Cut losses if sold-put spread mark reaches 80% of max loss.
#2iron condor (defined-risk wings)
Sell 31.00C / buy 34.00C and sell 27.50P / buy 25.00P 2026-04-24 (17 DTE)
Short-dated 17 DTE iron condor captures very high front-week IV (3d ATM 104.9%, 10d 93.8%, 17d 88.9%) while staying inside the 2-week expected move bounds. Put side benefits from $30 put OI floor and call side sits under heavy call OI walls at $35+. Use defined-risk wings to limit assignment and gamma exposure.
Mgmt: Prefer defined-risk wings due to chain depth limits. Close at 50% of max profit or if either short strike is tested intraday. If spot closes beyond either 2d EM bound ($28.42 or $33.12) consider rolling the tested wing 1–2 strikes and out 1–2 weeks. Cut losses at 75% of max loss or if gamma flip ~$30 is decisively breached intraday.
#3cash-secured put (naked short put) — conservative size
Sell 27.50 put 2026-05-22 (~45 DTE) cash-secured
If willing to own FIGR, selling 27.50P near the put OI cluster picks up elevated Theta and sits below current $30.77 spot and the gamma flip. High IV increases premium. Use conservative sizing given limited chain depth and potential assignment.
Mgmt: Only sell naked puts if cash-secured and size appropriately. Close at 50–60% of max profit or roll down/extend if price approaches 2d EM $28.42. Never hold naked through earnings (earnings 2026-05-15). Cut losses / buy back at 80% of max loss or if spot < $28.42 on close.
#4covered call (if long stock)
Sell 35.00 call 2026-05-22 (~45 DTE) against stock (covered call)
Large call OI at $35 (2,974 OI; GEX +$554K) and heavy call flow toward higher strikes suggest decent premiums for covered call sellers. Elevated IV supports collecting more premium while keeping upside defined by strike.
Mgmt: Expect early assignment if dividend/ex-date appears (none listed). Take profits on calls at 50% of max credit or roll up and out if stock rallies toward $34–35. Close if stock falls below $28.42 (2d EM) to preserve capital.
!Gamma flip ~ $30 — below this level dealers may amplify moves; close or hedge short credits if spot decisively breaches and closes below $30.00.
!Very high IV (Avg IV 102.4%) — favorable for sellers but signals event risk / large moves; front-week IV extremely elevated (3d ATM 104.9%).
!Earnings 2026-05-15 — do not sell naked through earnings; close/roll positions before the announcement.
!Chain depth limited (Total OI 110,986, active strikes 74) — hard rule: confidence capped at 4.0. Bid/ask spreads can be wide; assume $0.20–$0.50 friction on multi-leg entries.
!Unusual flow concentrated on puts at $40/$42.50 (large net put buys) suggests institutional hedges or directional positioning — could alter pinning if activity continues.