base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Term structure: Front-end elevated (1d 53%), dip at 15d (47%), spike at 21d (70%). Put skew steep across terms.
Spot vs MP: At
GEX regime: Pinning ($+122.8M)
Gamma flip: ~$55.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 172,251 (18.5% below spot)
OI concentrations: Put OI heavy below $62; gamma flip at $55. Max pain pins: $67 (1d), $62 (7d), $67 (15d).
#1Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-02 $64.00/$56.00 put wing and $73.00/$75.00 call wing
Sell put/call wings capturing IV decay
Mgmt: Adjust wings if break above 70 or below 65 Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.; short_call: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Open interest below 25.
#2Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-02 $64.00/$56.00 put spread
Bullish put credit spread near support
Mgmt: Roll if spot breaks below 64 Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.
#3Call diagonal
Sell 2026-07-02 $71.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $74.00 call
Bearish call diagonal, sell 71C/buy 74C
Mgmt: Exit if spot above 71 before expiry Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (190%).; long_call: Wide spread (175%).
!IV spike at 21d may indicate event risk (unknown).
!Tail risk below $65 structural floor.
!High put skew warns of downside hedging.