base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Term structure: Front-end elevated, decreasing with some skew.
Spot vs MP: Below
GEX regime: Pinning ($+28.9M)
Gamma flip: ~$55.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 172,297 (16.3% below spot)
OI concentrations: Put OI 16.3% below spot; call wall $70-$70.
#1Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $63.00/$61.00 put wing and $70.00/$70.50 call wing
Collect premium from both put and call wings within $61-$70 range.
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks $61 or $70; adjust wings if IV spikes. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (56%).; short_call: Wide spread (51%).; long_call: Wide spread (52%).
#2Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-10 $62.00/$61.00 put spread
Sell put spread at $62/$61 to capture premium expecting support.
Mgmt: Stop loss if spot breaches $65; roll if IV expands. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (71%).; long_put: Wide spread (102%).
#3Call credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $70.00/$70.50 call spread
Sell call spread at $70/$70.5 to collect premium expecting capped upside.
Mgmt: Exit if spot exceeds $69; adjust strikes on IV contraction. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (51%).; long_call: Wide spread (52%).
!Spot below gamma flip $55 (put OI concentration).
!Bearish flow and dealer positioning (GEX +$28.9M but net premium negative).