thetaOwl

BKNG

Booking Holdings Inc. Common StClose $192.03EOD only
Max Pain
$176.00
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.10
3.2% from close
Price Gap
-16.03
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
12
Low premium
P/C OI
0.84
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects BKNG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 20, 2026 close
BKNG Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 21, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Short-dated credit spreads (3–17d) and put spreads to collect elevated front-month premium while limiting assignment risk
Invalidation: Breakdown below $176 or ATM IV collapses >20% (removes front-loaded premium edge)
Confidence:
4.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 8.0% from MP; +0.5 VIX 20

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Underlying short-dated IV materially elevated vs VIX; 3–17d ATM IV spiked (≈49–57) with pronounced call/put skew at 3d.
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-loaded term structure: very high 3d IV that decays into mid-term — favorable for selling very short-dated premium if delta and assignment managed.

⚠️Pinning gamma concentrated near $177–$183 across next three expiries
📉Elevated front-week IV and fat skew create opportunity for short-dated credit/put spreads but raise assignment and roll risk

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+14.7M)

Gamma flip: ~$176.00Approx — based on put OI concentration of 10,943 (7.8% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI concentrated ~7.8% below spot (~$176); max-pain nodes at $177/$180/$183.

Verdict: High short-term pin risk into next expiries; gamma flip near $176 is a focal level and increases assignment probability.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-05-15 $190.00/$173.60 put spread
Collect elevated front-week/post-earnings put premium with defined risk.
Credit: $4.57-$5.58
Max loss: $10.82
BE: $184.42
Mgmt: Close/roll if spot <186 or IV collapses >20%; trim into sharp downside moves. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (196%).
#2
Call credit spread
Sell 2026-05-15 $196.00/$205.00 call spread
Harvest elevated call IV with tight defined risk and lower margin.
Credit: $2.90-$3.55
Max loss: $5.45
BE: $199.55
Mgmt: Exit if spot >198.86 or if call IV decays rapidly; buy back into rapid upside.
#3
Iron condor
Sell 2026-05-15 $190.00/$173.60 put wing and $196.00/$205.00 call wing
Simultaneously sells both wings to capture elevated two‑sided premium.
Credit: $7.47-$9.13
Max loss: $7.27
BE: 180.87 / 205.13
Mgmt: Manage wings separately, narrow or hedge if spot nears wings or IV shifts. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (196%).

Risk Alerts

!Spot 8% above MP increases downside pull risk
!Front-week IV spike raises assignment/hedge cost
!Bearish flow and negative net premium can accelerate downside moves
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on April 21, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.