base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 10.5% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Term structure: Very steep short-dated skew (0–21d rich); beyond 21d skew flattens—selling only conditional with hedges
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+35.7M)
Gamma flip: ~$176.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 10,993 (8.3% below spot)
OI concentrations: Put OI concentrated ~8.3% below spot; max-pain pins at $174/$176/$179; dealer GEX/net-short premium magnify local pinning
#1Call diagonal
Sell 2026-05-22 $205.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $232.00 call
Collect near-term premium with back-month call as hedge for upside; expresses neutral-to-slightly-bearish view and play on mid-dated IV compression.
Mgmt: Trim or close if spot >186 or IV collapses rapidly; roll short leg wider or same-month if pin breaks; size small given liquidity concerns. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (182%).; long_call: Wide spread (176%).
#2Put diagonal
Sell 2026-05-22 $180.00 put / buy 2026-07-17 $184.60 put
Sell short-dated put to collect premium into pin band while holding longer-dated long put as crash protection; expresses neutral-to-bullish skew capture.
Mgmt: Close or roll if spot <174 or IV collapses; avoid large size into earnings window and monitor gamma flip levels. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
!Watch gamma flip $176 and $174–$179 pin band
!Dealer GEX +$35.7M and net short premium amplify pinning but can reverse on heavy flow
!Rapid IV unwind or >3% spot move invalidates thesis