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APP

Applovin CorporationClose $482.28EOD only
Max Pain
$465.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$23.70
4.9% from close
Price Gap
-17.28
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
2
Low premium
P/C OI
0.86
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects APP options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
APP Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for April 2, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings in 36 days. IV is extremely elevated across the curve, with a sharp kink around the May 8th expiration, confirming the market's pricing of a major event. The best strategy is a short premium play to capitalize on the expected IV crush, but the massive expected move and high absolute volatility require careful risk management.

Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; +1 for clear IV term structure kink; +0 for mixed flow/sentiment
Most important: IV term structure shows a massive kink at the 5/8 expiration (85.7% IV), which is 38 days out and aligns with the estimated 5/6 earnings date. This is the focal point for earnings volatility.
⚠️Earnings date is estimated (5/6). Confirm with company IR. The IV kink at 5/08 expiration is the market's best guess.
📈100% EPS beat rate last 4 quarters, but no price reaction history. Beats may already be priced in.
🛡️Massive deep OTM put flow suggests institutional hedging. This may dampen violent downside moves but doesn't prevent them.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Extremely High (Avg IV 80.6%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$3.7M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-150.4M, P/C 0.88)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 6.4% (spot $398 vs MP $425)
Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Very low estimated gamma flip (~$200) due to massive OI in deep OTM puts, suggesting weak dealer support near spot. Moves could be amplified.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-06 (36 days)inferred from IV kink aligning with est. date

Expected moves:

  • 5/08 (38d): ±$39.95 (10.0%)
  • 5/15 (45d): ±$90.50 (22.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Massive kink at 5/08 (38d) expiration: 85.7% IV vs ~69% in nearby weeks. Elevated IV extends deep into the curve.

Crush estimate: ~15-25 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~65-70% range. The crush will be most severe in the 5/08 and 5/15 expirations.

Skew: P/C OI ratio of 0.79 suggests more call OI, but net premium flow is heavily negative (-$150M) driven by massive put buying in deep OTM strikes ($860-$1000). Sentiment is conflicted.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: No historical move data provided. EPS surprise has been consistently positive.

Directional bias: N/A - no price move history

Key Levels

1$392.5 (4/02 MP)
2$400 (4/10 MP)
3$410 (5/01 MP)
4EM 5/08: $357.5 - $437.5
5Gamma Flip ~$200

Flow Highlights

Massive net negative premium flow (-$150M) dominated by put buying in strikes $660-$1000.

Institutional or hedging demand for extreme downside protection, possibly tail-risk hedging rather than a direct earnings bet.

Unusual volume in 4/02 $375P and $385P (3.8x and 2.8x OI).

Near-term bearish positioning or hedging ahead of any pre-earnings volatility.

Strategies

Short Strangle (Post-Earnings IV Crush)
Sell $360 PUT / Sell $440 CALL exp 5/08
Credit: $12.00-$16.00
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $14.00
BE: $346.00 and $454.00
Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before earnings (late April), target ~50% of credit after IV crush.
Capitalizes on extreme IV (85.7%) expected to crush. Strikes set outside the 10% expected move provide a buffer. High credit provides wide breakevens.
Outperforms: Stock stays within a ~±11% range post-earnings (inside strangle wings). IV crushes significantly.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond strangle wings (>±11% move).
Iron Condor (Defined Risk)
Sell $370 PUT / Buy $350 PUT | Sell $430 CALL / Buy $450 CALL exp 5/08
Credit: $5.50-$7.50
Max loss: $14.50
Max gain: $6.50
BE: $363.50 and $436.50
Trigger: Enter 10-14 days before earnings.
Defined-risk alternative to the strangle. Suitable for smaller accounts or those wanting to limit downside. Still benefits from IV crush.
Outperforms: Stock stays within a ±9% range post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock moves beyond condor wings (>±9%).
Calendar Spread (Play IV Differential)
Buy $400 CALL exp 5/15 / Sell $400 CALL exp 5/08
Max loss: Cost of spread
Max gain: Uncapped if stock rallies post-earnings
BE: Complex; optimal if stock is near $400 at 5/08 expiry with high IV in short leg decaying faster.
Trigger: Enter 3-4 weeks before earnings.
Exploits the steep IV term structure kink. The short 5/08 call at 85.7% IV will decay rapidly post-earnings, while the long 5/15 call retains more time value.
Outperforms: Stock pins near $400 through 5/08 expiration, causing severe IV crush in the short-dated (85.7% IV) leg relative to the longer-dated leg.
Underperforms: Large immediate move before 5/08 expiry, or if IV term structure flattens.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: EXTREME. The 38-day expected move is ±10% ($40). The 45-day move is ±22.7% ($90). Positioning for a pin is dangerous.
!IV Crush Impact: This is the primary profit driver for short premium strategies. If IV remains elevated post-earnings due to macro or sector volatility, these plays will suffer.
!Liquidity: Options are liquid (287k OI, 211 active strikes), but wide markets are possible in high-IV names. Stick to ATM and near-ATM strikes.
!Sizing: Size small. The high implied move means positions can go against you quickly. Use defined-risk spreads (condors) to manage tail risk.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory on the 5/08 expiration into late April. A further rise increases credit for short premium plays.
?Spot price action relative to the descending max pain trend ($425 → $410). A move toward max pain could indicate pinning forces.
?Any unusual flow in ATM strikes for the 5/08 expiration as earnings approach.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.