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AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Close $475.51EOD only
Max Pain
$487.50
Next expiry Jun 12, 2026
Expected Move
±$31.38
6.6% from close
Price Gap
+11.99
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
83
High premium
P/C OI
1.11
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 9, 2026 close
AMD Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 9, 2026
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Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

AMD is in a pinning regime below max pain ($488) with dealers long gamma, suggesting mean-reverting behavior towards $488 by 06-12 expiration. High vol and mixed flow add uncertainty, but GEX positive supports a range-bound drift upward from current levels (~$433).

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
Base 8.5 from strong GEX/flow alignment (+2), positive gamma (+1), and moderate VIX (+0.5). Conflicts from high vol and mixed flow cap upside conviction.
Supports: GEX +$29.1M (pinning), spot below MP, dealer DEX +96.6M shares (net long).
Conflicts: High vol regime, mixed flow (puts/calls balanced), VIX ~20 near term.
📌Max pain $488 (06-12) provides magnetic pull; spot at $433 offers ~13% upside within range.
⚠️High vol regime (+2.5σ) warns of potential expansion; watch gamma flip at $390.
🔄Mixed flow indicates no clear directional accumulation; range-bound until expiration.
🛡️Dealer long gamma supports mean reversion; resistance at $487.5, support at $414.66.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol as IV is elevated relative to VIX (~19.87), likely due to event risk from upcoming expirations (06-12, 06-18).
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning regime with positive total gamma ($+29.1M) and dealer gamma long, attracting price towards max pain ($488).
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow with balanced put/call premium; no aggressive directional bet from options flow.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot ($433) is ~11% below max pain ($488), creating a bullish drift bias as expiration nears.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Multiple expiration dates (06-12, 06-18, 06-26) pin price over successive weeks, supported by long gamma structure.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$444.13$506.88
GEX pinning to $488; EM guardrails $444-$507; drift upward from $433 likely.
Next 1 week
$428.26$522.76
Aim for $488 max pain by 06-12; resistance at $487.5 aligns with upper range $522.
Next 2 weeks
$414.66$536.36
Post-expiration, focus shifts to $470 (06-26 MP) and $250 (06-18 MP); range bound $428-$522.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $488 (2026-06-12); $250 (2026-06-18); $470 (2026-06-26)
EM guardrails: 2d $444.13/$506.88; 1w $428.26/$522.76
Support: $414.66
Resistance: $487.50 · $536.36
Gamma flip: ~$390.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,245 (18.0% below spot)
Structural: Max pain: $488 (06-12), $250 (06-18), $470 (06-26). EM guardrails: 2d $444.13/$506.88; 1w $428.26/$522.76. Support: $414.66. Resistance: $487.5 (gamma flip/call wall), $536.36. Gamma flip at ~$390 (put OI concentration).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+29.1M

DEX: +96.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$390 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,245 (18.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers net long gamma $+29.1M with positive DEX +96.6M shares; gamma flip at ~$390 (approx based on OI concentration 18% below spot). Long gamma supports mean reversion and dampens vol.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: AMD IV is rich vs VIX (~19.87) due to event risk from upcoming expirations; premium suggests cautious bullish positioning.

Term structure: Term structure likely backwardated with kinks at 06-12, 06-18, and 06-26 expiries; front-end vol elevated.

Skew: Put skew elevated at $390 gamma flip; no clear arbitrage, but calendar spreads may benefit from vol decay post-expiration.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium $211M, PC vol ratio 0.93 (call-skewed), but put OI ratio 1.11 (hedging). Mixed signals but premium favors bullish.

Directional prints: 80.9 call 460 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 7.7x, OI 538; aggressive buying likely, but could be closing. Preferred: bullish call accumulation. 78.9 call 470 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 6.5x, OI 515; similar buy pressure. Premium flow supports call skew.

Unusual: 85.9 call 1090 OTM 2026-07-17 — Extreme OTM $0.09 call, vol 456 vs OI 102. Speculative long shots; low cost, high IV. 75.9 put 500 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 7829 vs OI 1480 (5.3x). Large put interest; possibly hedging or bearish bet. Mixed read. 70.1 put 460 OTM 2026-07-10 — Vol/OI 8.1x, OI 105. Unusual put activity for July; could be protective puts.

Risks & Catalysts

!Volatility expansion on macro event (e.g., VIX spike) could break pinning range.
!If spot breaks below $390 gamma flip, dealers turn short gamma, accelerating downside.
!Resistance at $487.5 may cap upside if volume fails.
!Mixed flow suggests lack of conviction; any shift to heavy put buying could reverse trend.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-07-02 $430.00/$400.00 put spread
Why now: Range-bound drift to $488; put credit spread captures time decay with bullish bias.
If spot breaks below $390, short put legs become at risk; gamma flip accelerates downside.
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $520.00/$570.00 call spread
Why now: Positive GEX and call accumulation support gradual rally; spread limits cost and downside.
Upside capped at short strike; if rally stalls below long strike, entire premium lost.

Top Plays

#1
Pinning Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-02 $430.00/$400.00 put spread
Sell 430/400 put spread on 7/2 expiry, profiting from pinning and low volatility.
Why this play: Best for thesis of mean reversion to $488; captures time decay with bullish bias.
Credit: $6.25-$7.64
Max loss: $22.36
BE: $422.36
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below 415 or vol spikes.
Traders expecting range-bound drift, low vol expansion.
#2
Gradual Rally Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $520.00/$570.00 call spread
Buy 520/570 call spread on 7/17 expiry, targeting gradual rally with limited risk.
Why this play: Leverages bullish flow and GEX for upside, but lower probability than put spread.
Debit: $10.87-$13.28
Max loss: $13.28
BE: $533.28
Mgmt: Close if spot falls below 415 or position loses time value.
Traders seeking higher upside with hedged cost.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot holds above 414.66 support and below 487.5 resistance → THEN sell 2026-07-02 $430/$400 put credit spread for entry range 6.25-7.64
IFIF spot breaks above 487.5 resistance with volume and GEX positive → THEN buy 2026-07-17 $520/$570 call spread for entry range 10.87-13.28
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot breaks below 414.66 (invalidation) or implied volatility spikes → THEN exit the $430/$400 put credit spread
EXITIF spot falls below 414.66 or time decay accelerates beyond plan → THEN exit the $520/$570 call spread

Tactical Summary

Thesis: AMD mean reverts to $488 max pain by 06-12 expiry, supported by positive GEX and pinning regime. Key supports: 414.66, resistance: 487.5 (call wall), 536.36. Primary play: put credit spread 430/400 7/2, benefits from time decay and range-bound drift. Secondary: bull call spread 520/570 7/17 if breakout above 487.5. Invalidation below 414.66 flips dealer gamma. Monitor vol expansion and macro events.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 9, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.