thetaOwl

AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Close $466.38EOD only
Max Pain
$492.50
Next expiry Jun 12, 2026
Expected Move
±$38.72
8.3% from close
Price Gap
+26.12
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
82
High premium
P/C OI
1.10
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 5, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 5, 2026 close
AMD Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 8, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

AMD bullish bias due to pinning gamma at $485 and bullish flow; targeting resistance $540-554 with high confidence.

Confidence:
9 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow alignment; +1 positive GEX; +0.5 spot near MP; +0.5 VIX 19.
Supports: Bullish flow, positive gamma, spot above MP, elevated VIX.
Conflicts: Resistance at $540 and $554; gamma flip at $390; overbought RSI risk.
🔒Max pain $485 pins spot near term.
🚀Bullish flow with strong call buying.
⚠️Gamma flip at $390 poses downside risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated vs normal; VIX 19 supports high vol regime.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Positive GEX $37.1M pins spot near MP; gamma flip at $390 (20.5% below spot).
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish net premium, strong put/call skew favoring calls.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot above MP ($485 max pain), pinning pressure from above.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Price ranges defined for 1w and 2w; bullish flow and pinning support sustained drift.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$440.30$540.35
Range $440.30-$540.35; bias up with pinning at $485.
Next 2 weeks
$426.65$554.00
Range $426.65-$554; breakout above $554 opens upside.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $485 (2026-06-12); $250 (2026-06-18); $470 (2026-06-26)
EM guardrails: 1w $440.30/$540.35
Support: $485.00 · $426.65
Resistance: $554.00
Gamma flip: ~$390.00Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,230 (20.5% below spot)
Structural: Max pain $485 (6/12), $250 (6/18), $470 (6/26); EM guardrails $440.30/$540.35; support $485, $426.65; resistance $554; gamma flip $390.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+37.1M

DEX: +96.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$390 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,230 (20.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: Long gamma +$37.1M; delta +96.4M shares; gamma flip at $390; dealers long vol, bullish delta.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: AMD IV rich vs VIX (18.92); elevated vol justifies bullish flow premium.

Term structure: Likely backwardation near expiries; kinks around weekly max pain dates.

Skew: Call skew elevated; put wing cheap relative to call; consider call spreads or long vol strangles.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $227.7M positive with put/call vol ratio 0.79, indicating strong call buying bias.

Directional prints: 76.9 call 500 OTM 2026-06-12 — Volume 13601 vs OI 3069 (vol/OI 4.4), active call buying at key round number, likely purchased for upside momentum, preferred read bullish. 77.4 call 490 ITM 2026-06-12 — Volume 7412 vs OI 1210 (vol/OI 6.1), heavy call accumulation, indicates bullish sentiment near support, preferred read bullish. 77.2 call 510 OTM 2026-06-12 — Volume 9317 vs OI 1510 (vol/OI 6.2), large call open interest building, suggests bullish breakout play, preferred read bullish.

Unusual: 77.6 call 487.5 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 12.3x (2628 vol vs 213 OI), extreme ratio, aggressive call buying likely initiating new positions, preferred read bullish. 77.4 call 492.5 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 9.8x (2440 vol vs 249 OI), highly unusual call volume, suggests directional conviction to the upside, preferred read bullish. 89.3 call 640 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol 822 vs OI 202 (vol/OI 4.1), far OTM call with elevated IV, likely speculative lottery ticket buying, preferred read bullish skew.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip below $390 triggers dealer hedging.
!Spot rejection at resistance $540-$554.
!Earnings or macro event alters flow.
!GEX unwinding if spot breaks range extremes.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadStrong
Buy 2026-08-21 $500.00/$510.00 call spread
Why now: Strong call flow and gamma support upside; expiration after earnings for follow-through.
Max loss if stock below $500; capped profit at $515. Substitutions: short_call: resolved contract 2026-08-21 $515.00 missing; used 2026-08-21 $510.00.
Bull call spreadStrong
Buy 2026-08-21 $500.00/$530.00 call spread
Why now: Strong call buying and gamma pin at $485 make call spread efficient.
Max loss if spot stays below $485; cap at $515.
Put credit spreadModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-08-21 $440.00/$400.00 put spread
Why now: Low put vol and net call buying suggest downside support at $480.
Max loss if spot drops below $470; short put at $480.
Bullish risk reversalModerate
Buy 2026-08-21 $500.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $420.00 put
Why now: Cost-effective way to express strong bullish view with limited downside.
Unlimited upside potential but short put loss if spot falls below $470.

Top Plays

#1
Narrow Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $500.00/$510.00 call spread
Buy $500/$510 call spread, cost ~$4, max gain $6.
Why this play: Highest probability given strong call flow and gamma support; expiration covers earnings.
Debit: $3.71-$4.54
Max loss: $4.54
BE: $504.54
Mgmt: Exit below $485; take profit at $10+ or hold through earnings.
Traders seeking defined risk with high confidence in $510+.
#2
Wide Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $500.00/$530.00 call spread
Buy $500/$530 call spread, cost ~$12, max gain $18.
Why this play: Leverages bullish momentum with wider profit zone; efficient due to call buying.
Debit: $10.08-$12.32
Max loss: $12.32
BE: $512.32
Mgmt: Invalidate below $485; partial profits at $520.
Traders expecting rally above $530.
#3
Bullish Risk Reversal
Buy 2026-08-21 $500.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $420.00 put
Buy $500 call, sell $420 put, net cost ~$32.
Why this play: Unlimited upside at low cost; suits aggressive bullish view.
Debit: $29.16-$35.64
Max loss: $420.00
BE: $420.00
Mgmt: Monitor spot; roll put up if trend weakens; target $540+.
Aggressive traders seeking leveraged upside, tolerant of downside risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFAMD spot > $500 with bullish flowBuy 2026-08-21 $500.00/$510.00 call spread
Exit Triggers
EXITAMD spot < $485Close 2026-08-21 $500.00/$510.00 call spread
EXITAMD spot >= $540Take profit on 2026-08-21 $500.00/$510.00 call spread

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias, support $485, resistance $540-554. Gamma pin at $485. Top play: narrow bull call spread $500/$510. Invalidate below $485, target $540+. Earnings 8/4.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 8, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.