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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $211.14EOD only

Max Pain

$210.00

Next expiry Jun 1, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.36

2.5% from close

Price Gap

-1.14

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.80

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 29, 2026 close

NVDA Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 14, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 6.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18.36

IV Environment

IV Regime

Normal

IV vs VIX

Avg IV 44.7% vs VIX 18.36 — stock IV is rich relative to VIX but classified 'Normal' for NVDA

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Near-term skew: 1d ATM 25.5% → 17d ATM 33.7% then rises into mid-term (38-41%). Short-to-mid term is elevated vs 1d which creates good selling theta in 17-45 DTE band.

💰Total GEX +$948.0M concentrated around $195/$200 creates reliable pin magnets

📈Avg IV 44.7% is high enough for attractive credits while regime says 'Normal' — favors defined-risk selling in 17-45 DTE

⚠️VIX 18.36 low; broad vols calm — tail risk may come from stock-specific flows not market vol

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above by 6.2% (Spot $196.51 vs Max Pain $185/$180 sequence)

GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$948.0M concentrated at $195, $200, $190)

Gamma flip: ~$140.00 — Gamma flip ~ $140 — well below spot; dealers have large long-gamma exposure above that level and will pin between heavy OI strikes rather than supply acceleration until price gets near $140.

OI concentrations: Call walls: $195 (104,350 OI), $190 (102,611 OI), $185 (95,189 OI). Put wall notable at $140 (82,750 OI). Heavy premium flow into $200 and $195 calls (net call flow).

Verdict: Favorable — strong positive GEX at $195/$200 acts as a magnet; this supports selling call premium just above spot or selling put spreads further down with defined risk.

Premium Opportunities

call spread

Sell 200/205 call spread 2026-05-01 (17 DTE)

Dealer pin magnets at $195 and $200 (total GEX concentration +$246.7M across those strikes) make the $200 strike a sticky resistance. Term structure shows 17d ATM IV 33.7% — attractive theta decay without extreme IV crush risk. Defined-risk spread caps assignment/exercise risk.

Credit: $1.10-$1.60

Max loss: $3.90

BE: 200 + net credit ≈ 201.10 - 201.60

Mgmt: Take profit 50-65% of max credit; roll out 1-2 strikes higher and 2-3 weeks forward if short strike tested; cut losses if underlying closes and stays > $205 (short strike tested) on daily close or if credit spread value has >70% of max loss.

iron condor

Sell 185/180 put spread + 200/205 call spread 2026-05-01 (17 DTE)

Max pain pins and short-term EM bounds center around $185-$202.7; selling both wings captures large net premium (call-side funded by strong call flow). Positive GEX near $185-$200 reduces wing cost and increases chance of both wings expiring worthless within 17d.

Credit: $2.20-$3.00

Max loss: $2.80

BE: Lower ≈ 185 - credit; Upper ≈ 205 + credit (approx $182.8 / $208.0)

Mgmt: Close at 50% of max profit; if either short strike is tested, hedge that side (roll wing out 1-2 strikes and out 2-4 weeks) or convert tested side to a wider defined-risk spread. Cut losses if price closes beyond the tested short strike and momentum (volume + delta) confirms continuation.

cash-secured put (CSP)

Sell 185 put 2026-05-01 (17 DTE) cash-secured

Max pain $185 and heavy call liquidity concentrate below — selling a single $185 put collects decent premium (chain mid shows $185 put ~ $0.70-$0.73 for very short expirations). This is a margin-efficient way to be long NVDA at a price near known pin; favorable because regime is bullish flow and spot > MP but requires willingness to own shares.

Credit: $0.70-$0.85

Max loss: $184.30

BE: $184.30

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of premium; roll down and out if put goes ITM and you want to avoid assignment (roll to $180-$175 strikes 3-6 weeks out); cut risk if NVDA breaks and closes below $180 on high volume or below the 1w EM lower bound $190.29 (re-evaluate earlier).

calendar (call-heavy)

Sell near-term 2026-04-24 (10d) 200 call, buy 2026-05-29 (45d) 200 call (calendar)

Strong pinning at $195/$200 and elevated mid-term IV (May ATM ~33.7-38.9%) produce positive carry for calendars if short-term IV is elevated relative to front. Collect front theta while longer-dated call retains value. Use for traders wanting lower-risk directional neutral exposure to a sticky $200.

Debit: $0.30-$0.60

Max loss: $0.60

BE: Model-dependent; best outcome if spot remains near $195-$200 into short expiry

Mgmt: Close short leg into >65% decay or if spot moves >2% beyond $200; exit calendar if implied vol term structure inverts or if short-dated IV spikes; limit loss by closing entire structure if debit cost >50% of paid premium.

put spread (defensive)

Sell 180/175 put spread 2026-05-01 (17 DTE)

If you want the put side exposure but prefer defined risk, the 180/175 put spread sits near the weekly Max Pain trend (MP pulling toward 180) and buys protection if tail downside re-accelerates toward the put floor ($140). Small credit but low probability of being reached in 17d given current EM bounds.

Credit: $0.30-$0.50

Max loss: $4.70

BE: $179.70

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of premium; close if price trades below $182 on daily close (1w EM lower $190.29 is first guardrail — tighter trigger) or if IV spikes >10 vols in 24h which widens loss on the spread.

Risk Alerts

!Max Pain cluster is falling toward $180-$185 over the next expirations — downside pinning risk increases if flows change; avoid aggressive naked calls above $205 or naked puts near $185 without defined risk.

!Gamma flip ~$140 — if price plunged toward that level dealer dynamics flip and moves can accelerate; defined-risk is mandatory if you do multi-week wings.

!Large concentrated call OI at $195 (104,350 OI) and $200 (74,954 OI) — short strikes around these levels see pinning pressure but also risk of short-squeeze rallies if institutional buying continues.

!Earnings on 2026-05-20 (outside the 17-45 DTE window recommended) — avoid opening naked positions that would still be on into earnings; close or roll prior to event.

!Unusual activity shows heavy short-dated put and call flow into 4/15–4/17 expiries (e.g., $192.50 puts and $195/$197.50 calls) — elevated front-week flow can create intraday pinning and gamma spikes; prefer 17-45 DTE defined-risk structures rather than naked weekly shorts.

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on April 14, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.