Earnings Overview
AMD reports Q1 2026 earnings on April 29 after market close (AMC). Consensus expects revenue of $7.1B (+18% YoY) and EPS of $1.02. The AI accelerator segment (MI300X) is the key focus, with Street estimates ranging widely from $1.8B to $2.4B.
Implied Volatility Analysis
Current IV rank is 58, meaning options are moderately expensive relative to the past year. The expected move for the April 29 weekly expiration is +/-6.2%, which translates to approximately +/-$9.70 from the current price of $156.30.
Historical earnings moves over the past 8 quarters: +4.1%, -8.2%, +2.8%, -3.6%, +6.9%, -1.2%, +5.3%, -4.7%. The average absolute move is 4.6%, making the current expected move of 6.2% slightly elevated — the market is pricing in extra uncertainty.
Strategy for Income Investors
If you own AMD shares and want to hold through earnings, consider selling a covered call at the $175 strike (12% OTM) expiring May 2. This captures elevated pre-earnings premium while giving substantial upside room. Premium is approximately $3.80/share ($380/contract).
Alternatively, if you want to avoid earnings risk entirely, sell the April 11 expiration at the $165 strike. You still collect solid premium ($4.10/share) and the option expires 18 days before earnings.
Key Risk
AMD's AI narrative is binary — a strong MI300X number could send the stock surging past any covered call strike, while a miss could trigger a sharp decline. Position size accordingly.